Politicians often have trouble separating fact from fiction when it comes to legislation. So, with the first provisions of the massive health-care reform bill scheduled to take effect July 1, FOX Business breaks down some key claims made about the costs and impact of the plan -- and fact-checked them against the analysis of the government’s own beancounters.
Claim: Health-care reform will be deficit-neutral
Rhetoric: "I will not sign a plan that adds one dime to our deficits -- either now or in the future. I will not sign it if it adds one dime to the deficit, now or in the future, period. And to prove that I'm serious, there will be a provision in this plan that requires us to come forward with more spending cuts if the savings we promised don't materialize." - President Obama in a joint address to Congress
Analysis: CBO estimates (looking only at the mandatory spending required by the Democrats' health-care reform legislation), found that the legislation would increase budget deficits in four of the 10 fiscal years analyzed (FY 2010, 2011, 2016 and 2017) but decrease the overall 10-year budget deficit by $138 billion.
The CBO estimated that additional discretionary costs associated with the health-care reform legislation (which Congress would have to approve through separate appropriations) would cost at least an additional $105 billion over the 10-year period.
Sources:
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/113xx/doc11355/hr4872.pdf
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/114xx/doc11490/LewisLtr_HR3590.pdf
Claim: Health-care reform will "bend the cost curve"
Rhetoric: "Everybody who's looked at it says that every single good idea to bend the cost curve and start actually reducing health care costs are in this bill." - President Obama remarks to House Democratic Congress
Analysis: According to the CMS Chief Actuary of President Obama's Department of Health and Human Services, national health-care expenditures would increase by $311 billion over the next 10 years as a result of the legislation, “with an associated increase in overall national health expenditures ranging from $2.1 billion in 2011 to $18.2 billion in 2018 and $17.8 billion in 2019."
Claim: If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor
Rhetoric: "First, if you are among the hundreds of millions of Americans who already have health insurance through your job, or Medicare, or Medicaid, or the VA, nothing in this plan will require you or your employer to change the coverage or the doctor you have. Let me repeat this: Nothing in our plan requires you to change what you have." - President Obama in a joint address to Congress
Analysis: According to the CMS Chief Actuary of Obama's Department of Health and Human Services, 14 million people will lose their employer-sponsored coverage, and doctors may no longer accept certain patients who have either low-reimbursement coverage or coverage through Medicare.
Claim: High-risk insurance will be available nationwide on July 1, 2010
Rhetoric: "For those Americans who can't get insurance today because they have pre-existing medical conditions, we will immediately offer low-cost coverage that will protect you against financial ruin if you become seriously ill." - Obama in a joint address to Congress
Analysis: According to the CMS Chief Actuary, “by 2011 and 2012 the initial $5 billion in Federal funding for [high risk pools] would be exhausted, resulting in substantial premium increases to sustain the program.”
Additionally, about 30 states opted to run the programs themselves. Of those, 20 will be ready to accept applications in early to mid-July. About 10 states are working through legislative and other issues that may take weeks or months to resolve.
Sources:
http://www.politico.com/static/PPM130_oact_memorandum_on_financial_impact_of_ppaca_as_enacted.html
http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2010-06-27-health-care_N.htm
Claim: Medicare trust fund money will not be used to fund health-care reform
Rhetoric: “Not a dollar of the Medicare trust fund will be used to pay for this plan.” - President Obama in a joint address to Congress
Analysis: According to the CBO, “the health reform legislation improves cash flow in the [Medicare] HI trust fund by more than $400 billion over 10 years. Higher balances in the fund will give the government legal authority to pay Medicare benefits longer, but most of the money will pay for new programs and will not enhance the government’s economic ability to pay Medicare benefits."
The CMS Chief Actuary says: "The Reconciliation Act amendments introduced a new 3.8% 'unearned income Medicare contribution' and despite the title of this tax, this provision is unrelated to Medicare; in particular, the revenues generated by the tax on unearned income are not allocated to the Medicare trust funds.”
Sources:
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/114xx/doc11439/WHCC_Presentation-4-12-10.pdf
http://www.politico.com/static/PPM130_oact_memorandum_on_financial_impact_of_ppaca_as_enacted.html
